Year End Earnings Season
As regular readers of the Investment Outlook know, our writing follows the calendar of quarterly earnings reports. The companies that we invest in report financial data and management commentary on a regular basis. This is colloquially called “earnings season”. It is an important part of our investment process because we are able to check-in on the progress of the companies that we own, as well as management’s expectations for the future of their business operations. Internally, we informally declare the “end-of-earnings season” when the results of the Canadian banks are published. The 4th quarter of 2024 “ended” last week. In the Canadian banking sector, we saw strong financial results across the industry. The quarter consisted of outperformance in the capital markets divisions, driven by higher trading revenues and continued strength in the banks’ wealth management businesses. Commentary from management was less constructive, as Canada-US relations poses risks to the credit profile and lending appetite of borrowers in the near term. While this could cause volatility in the coming quarters, we note that the large banks have strong capital positions, providing a buffer to mitigate against these potential risks.
Regular readers will recognize the aggregate sales data for North American companies noted in Figure 1. We prefer to study aggregate sales data as it is harder to manipulate than earnings. We also focus on “all listed companies” in North America, rather than a widely used index, like the S&P 5oo, because we find the large global companies in those types of indices can skew a significant portion of what would be considered “Main Street”.
- So far, 2,843 companies or 92% of North American companies have reported strong results (other than commodities) accelerating 4.5%. The strongest quarter for a year, with respect to sales growth.
- We find it interesting that commodities and utilities had a tough quarter. This was the same as last year. Other than materials, there were some very strong performances from technology, financials, health care and paradoxically real estate.
“This means that” we did have a positive view on the US economy. However, with recent global tariff escalations, this clearly is no longer a given. The backward data looks constructive (low unemployment, decelerating inflation) and we had seen numerous positive comments from company managements (anecdotal). However, we remain laser-focused on this, and our view could change very quickly, especially with a change in consumer expectations.
National Instrument 31-103 requires registered firms to disclose information that a reasonable investor would expect to know, including any material conflicts with the firm or its representatives. Doug Johnson and/or Pathfinder Asset Management Limited are an insider of companies periodically mentioned in this report. Please visit www.paml.ca for full disclosures.
Changes in Leverage. We are increasing the asset ceiling to 2.0 times the market value of equity for Pathfinder International Fund and Pathfinder Conviction Fund to be consistent with Pathfinder Partners’ Fund and Pathfinder Resource Fund.
For more information, please follow the links above to review the fund term sheets.
*All returns are time weighted and net of investment management fees. Returns from the Pathfinder Partners’ Fund and Partners’ Real Return Plus Fund are presented based on the masters series of each fund. The Pathfinder Core: Equity Portfolio and The Pathfinder Core: High Income Portfolio are live accounts. These are actual accounts owned by the Pathfinder Chairman (Equity) and client (High Income) which contain no legacy positions, cash flows or other Pathfinder investment mandates or products. Monthly inception dates for each fund and portfolio are as follows: Pathfinder Core: Equity Portfolio (January 2011), Pathfinder Core: High Income Portfolio (October 2012) Partners’ Fund (April 2011), Partners’ Real Return Plus Fund (April, 2013), and Partners’ Core Plus Fund (November 2014).
Pathfinder Asset Management Limited (PAML) and its affiliates may collectively beneficially own in excess of 10% of one or more classes of the issued and outstanding equity securities mentioned in this newsletter. This publication is intended only to convey information. It is not to be construed as an investment guide or as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned in it. The author has taken all usual and reasonable precautions to determine that the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and that the procedures used to summarize and analyze such information are based on approved practices and principles in the investment industry. However, the market forces underlying investment value are subject to sudden and dramatic changes and data availability varies from one moment to the next. Consequently, neither the author nor PAML can make any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of information, analysis or views contained in this publication or their usefulness or suitability in any particular circumstance. You should not undertake any investment or portfolio assessment or other transaction on the basis of this publication, but should first consult your portfolio manager, who can assess all relevant particulars of any proposed investment or transaction. PAML and the author accept no liability of any kind whatsoever or any damages or losses incurred by you as a result of reliance upon or use of this publication.